There's even a worst case than this, Nick. If Trump resumes the war and Iran makes good on its threat to destroy more middle eastern infrastructure, and/or if the Houthis decide to close the Bab al-Mandan, we could get above 30% loss of supply. What then?
Although financial markets have been reacting to jawbones rather than the physical reality of the situation I do think its fair to suggest that mid June into July is when we can expect the pricing to overwhelm any synthetic depreciation attempts at price control because we will be approaching operational floors and we cannot actually touch operational floors. TLDR price adjusts parabolically June forward because tank bottoms are a limit we cannot hit.
There's even a worst case than this, Nick. If Trump resumes the war and Iran makes good on its threat to destroy more middle eastern infrastructure, and/or if the Houthis decide to close the Bab al-Mandan, we could get above 30% loss of supply. What then?
True, but I was trying not to be too apocalyptic.
Although financial markets have been reacting to jawbones rather than the physical reality of the situation I do think its fair to suggest that mid June into July is when we can expect the pricing to overwhelm any synthetic depreciation attempts at price control because we will be approaching operational floors and we cannot actually touch operational floors. TLDR price adjusts parabolically June forward because tank bottoms are a limit we cannot hit.
Um, you forgot national and international reserves.