Excellent work. There is so much BS floating around from talking head panelists. Most have done little real research and have next to no experience to provide relevant insight. The few that do get only a few minutes and rarely can break through the blather before the show moves on to the next serious topic.
Thanks very much for the feedback, I really appreciate it. Good to see people are finding it interesting. Happy for pushback to test my opinions too. And I agree on the problem with the broader messaging in the media – that is one of the catalysts for me to write these explanatory and opinion pieces.
What a mess… I’m making investments that align with a strait that is closed much longer than we think. Madness really… but the only thing you can control is how you react to the insanity.
Thank Nick, it as an excellent piece! Would like to add my own 2 cents - American policymakers and military generally seemed to have learnt very little from the war in Ukraine, even though by all indications, evidence, pronouncements and even reported explicit admissions in MSM such as the NYT, they are the ones directing and running the show, especially the macro (strategic) aspects of it.
Why the Russian blockade of the Ukrainian Black Sea coast (which is especially critical for agricultural, steel and sunflower oil exports) failed for the first 3.5 years, is because Ukraine shifted to moving cargo through border ports on trans-national rivers (such as Izmail and Reni ports on Danube) and using Romanian seaports to then export and import goods by using ships that hugged the Romanian and NATO coastline through most of their journey (similar to Iranian blockade running ships now).
Of course, the use of asymmetric means such as the USVs and anti-ship missiles also played a critical role by pushing the blockading Black Sea fleet back by a thousand kilometers, which effectively rendered interception efforts meaningless. This is especially why USN is very cautious about risking another Moskva type incident which would be seen and exploited as a huge propaganda victory globally, and is thus maintaining a safe distance from the coast.
Unlike Iran War, which is under a quasi ceasefire, Ukraine also had the option of striking at basing points of the blockading ships itself, such as at Sevastopol (with targetting and intelligence data duly provided by US- openly reported in MSM). This additional option that the target state Ukraine has is something Iran does not really have because of both the fragile ceasefire it is interested in nominally upholding and because the likely basing of the blockading fleet is in Djibouti or somewhere farther away which is likely outside the direct range of Iranian missiles (but possibly within range for Houthis).
However, this ceasefire also ironically is beneficial for Iran as it constrains the blockader from bombing its ports, which in fact is the reason why the Russian blockade of Ukrainian coastline has become increasingly effective in the last one year with a growing number of strike assets, especially drones, regularly bombing and disabling critical port infrastructure of both the sea ports and the river ports of Odessa (thus severely affecting the throughput of a heavily import dependent economy and a cash-strapped state in need of considerable funds from exports- although some of it is offset by land trade with NATO neighbours), along with occasional attacks on incoming or outgoing ships (which affects Ukraine more as unlike Iran, they do not have access to a shadow fleet with access to more risky marine insurance, and generally a much bigger risk appetite)
If US had studied this contemporary blockading attempt, it could have devised a better strategy that the one it is currently pursuing - not necessarily to impose a better blockade, but rather also to study whether a blockade would even be an effective strategy in the current context to influence and coerce Iranian behaviour (economic pain has not coerced Ukraine to capitulate despite being subjected to much more punishing and devastating attacks over a much longer timeframe - so similar American expectations now may be entirely misplaced).
Thanks for your kind words and excellent response. I don’t follow Ukraine as closely as the Middle East, but you have given me some good ideas to think through more.
Loving the write-ups mate! Good thing we are over this end of the Globe. But we are sorely exposed to everything happening there. Sleepwalking into a real storm by all reports. Keep it up
For all of those instances I normally put in ‘claimed’ or similar. I simply forgot on that occasion because I was updating it in real time for the Tuesday halt.
Check out the references. They are serious work and not mainstream media. I had forgotten about the tanker wars of the 80’s, but am reasonably familiar with the literature on naval blockades and supply chain logistics.
Excellent work. There is so much BS floating around from talking head panelists. Most have done little real research and have next to no experience to provide relevant insight. The few that do get only a few minutes and rarely can break through the blather before the show moves on to the next serious topic.
Thank you.
Thanks very much for the feedback, I really appreciate it. Good to see people are finding it interesting. Happy for pushback to test my opinions too. And I agree on the problem with the broader messaging in the media – that is one of the catalysts for me to write these explanatory and opinion pieces.
What a mess… I’m making investments that align with a strait that is closed much longer than we think. Madness really… but the only thing you can control is how you react to the insanity.
Thank Nick, it as an excellent piece! Would like to add my own 2 cents - American policymakers and military generally seemed to have learnt very little from the war in Ukraine, even though by all indications, evidence, pronouncements and even reported explicit admissions in MSM such as the NYT, they are the ones directing and running the show, especially the macro (strategic) aspects of it.
Why the Russian blockade of the Ukrainian Black Sea coast (which is especially critical for agricultural, steel and sunflower oil exports) failed for the first 3.5 years, is because Ukraine shifted to moving cargo through border ports on trans-national rivers (such as Izmail and Reni ports on Danube) and using Romanian seaports to then export and import goods by using ships that hugged the Romanian and NATO coastline through most of their journey (similar to Iranian blockade running ships now).
Of course, the use of asymmetric means such as the USVs and anti-ship missiles also played a critical role by pushing the blockading Black Sea fleet back by a thousand kilometers, which effectively rendered interception efforts meaningless. This is especially why USN is very cautious about risking another Moskva type incident which would be seen and exploited as a huge propaganda victory globally, and is thus maintaining a safe distance from the coast.
Unlike Iran War, which is under a quasi ceasefire, Ukraine also had the option of striking at basing points of the blockading ships itself, such as at Sevastopol (with targetting and intelligence data duly provided by US- openly reported in MSM). This additional option that the target state Ukraine has is something Iran does not really have because of both the fragile ceasefire it is interested in nominally upholding and because the likely basing of the blockading fleet is in Djibouti or somewhere farther away which is likely outside the direct range of Iranian missiles (but possibly within range for Houthis).
However, this ceasefire also ironically is beneficial for Iran as it constrains the blockader from bombing its ports, which in fact is the reason why the Russian blockade of Ukrainian coastline has become increasingly effective in the last one year with a growing number of strike assets, especially drones, regularly bombing and disabling critical port infrastructure of both the sea ports and the river ports of Odessa (thus severely affecting the throughput of a heavily import dependent economy and a cash-strapped state in need of considerable funds from exports- although some of it is offset by land trade with NATO neighbours), along with occasional attacks on incoming or outgoing ships (which affects Ukraine more as unlike Iran, they do not have access to a shadow fleet with access to more risky marine insurance, and generally a much bigger risk appetite)
If US had studied this contemporary blockading attempt, it could have devised a better strategy that the one it is currently pursuing - not necessarily to impose a better blockade, but rather also to study whether a blockade would even be an effective strategy in the current context to influence and coerce Iranian behaviour (economic pain has not coerced Ukraine to capitulate despite being subjected to much more punishing and devastating attacks over a much longer timeframe - so similar American expectations now may be entirely misplaced).
Thanks for your kind words and excellent response. I don’t follow Ukraine as closely as the Middle East, but you have given me some good ideas to think through more.
Outstanding. Saw the link in a comment on X and came right over. Excellent work.
Thanks, really appreciate the feedback.
Loving the write-ups mate! Good thing we are over this end of the Globe. But we are sorely exposed to everything happening there. Sleepwalking into a real storm by all reports. Keep it up
Thanks, the feedback is very much welcome and appreciated. And you are right re where we are on the globe!
You should do some basic fact checking before making bold, definitive assertions. Just because you heard/read something in MSM doesn’t make it true
Like what? If you disagree with a point, you should point it out.
“ By Monday evening, US destroyers had sunk six Iranian fast boats” .. a lie
turns out there were actually two littoral civilian cargo vessels with crews subsequently murdered by the US.
The MSM dutifully reported the BS press release from CENTCOM
For all of those instances I normally put in ‘claimed’ or similar. I simply forgot on that occasion because I was updating it in real time for the Tuesday halt.
Check out the references. They are serious work and not mainstream media. I had forgotten about the tanker wars of the 80’s, but am reasonably familiar with the literature on naval blockades and supply chain logistics.